• FX policy déjà vu

    Last week, in a surprise announcement, the CBN governor halted the sale of the apex bank’s FX to Bureau De Change (BDC) operators. The statement, and reasons given for the action, gave us a feeling of déjà vu – the CBN did this in 2016. So, we took a trip down memory lane and explored …

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  • MPC likely to hold rates

    The monetary policy committee (MPC) meets today and tomorrow. At its last meeting held in May, the committee was faced with two broad options: address the high inflationary pressure or pursue measures to support the economic recovery. See more details below. FX Last week, the exchange rate at the Investors and Exporters Window (I&E Window) …

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  • Inflation on the downtrend

    Last week, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June 2021 showed a moderate decline in the headline inflation to 17.75% from 17.93% recorded in May 2021. We attribute the slowdown to the effect of the high base from the previous year. The trend over the last three months suggests …

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  • Nigeria’s Oil Conundrum

    As oil demand is expected to grow strongly in the summer months, the OPEC+ alliance is still unable to reach an agreement on oil supply going forward with mixed results for the Nigerian economy. This month, the Senate passed the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB); it is expected to create efficient and effective governing institutions with …

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  • CBN funding the government

    In times of recession, and of a budget shortfall, it is only normal to expect a central bank to lend money to its government.  However, in Nigeria, it appears to have become a habit.  And the stock of debt is mounting.  See details below. FX Last week, the exchange rate at the Investors and Exporters …

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  • Nigerian Banks: Resilience built in

    Coronation Research, today releases its report on Nigerian Banks “Nigerian Banks, Resilience Built In”. The report shows that Nigerian banks’ earnings have been remarkably resilient over the interest rate cycle, their profitability is improving over time and their stock values are remarkably cheap compared to Ghanaian and Kenyan bank stocks. Our 10-year study of Nigerian banks shows …

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  • Nigerian Banks: Resilience built-in

    On Friday, we published our report on Nigerian Banks. We examined what has happened within the Nigerian Banking industry over the past 10 years. It is a unique 10-year study of the margins and profitability of six listed banks:  Zenith Bank; Guaranty Trust; Access Bank; FBN Holdings; UBA, and Stanbic IBTC.  Read below for details …

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  • The World Bank Blueprint

    The World Bank does not leave a stone unturned when it comes to examining Nigeria. Many of its recommendations come as no surprise: full harmonisation of foreign exchange markets; removal of all tariffs; and trade liberalisation, for example. But who would read the entirety of this authoritative report and summarise it?  We would.  See details …

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  • Bitcoin and Nigeria

    Bitcoin has taken the world by storm over the past year, but Nigerians were alert to the opportunities early on, and data suggests that they are among the most active Bitcoin traders in the world. At the same time, numerous central banks take a dim view of cryptocurrencies and would like to control them. What …

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  • Oil prices and FX reserves

    One can almost hear the sigh of relief coming from Abuja.  Oil prices are up and the immediate threat to the nation’s foreign exchange reserves has receded. Markets (long-dated bonds and equities) have responded positively. However, inflation is still far above risk-free rates and the unofficial exchange rate is slipping. The game is not yet …

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