2020 will see the results of three bold policy experiments started in 2019. First and second were the minimum loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) of 65% imposed on banks and the ban on local institutions buying open market operation (OMO) bills, both policies aimed at banks growing their loan books. We explain the tensions caused in Coronation …

Last week the Organization of the Oil Exporting Countries decided to cut production quotas again, this time with Nigeria very much in mind. Nigeria’s level of oil production is not entirely in its own hands. FX The CBN’s foreign exchange reserves have shed US$381.40 million so far in December, bringing the gross figure to US$39.32 …

Q3 2019 GDP growth was reported on Monday at 2.28% y/y, exceeding the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 1.85% y/y. However, it marked an improvement on Q2 GDP which grew at 2.12% (restated from the original print of 1.94%). Significantly, Q3 non-oil GDP grew at 1.85% which marked an improvement in Q2 when it grew at …

The fixed income markets have plenty of liquidity, market interest rates are falling, and even the equity market rallied last week. The outstanding problem is weak growth, with Q1 2019 GDP economic expansion at just 2.01% y/y (Q1 2019 non-oil growth was 2.47% y/y). What better time for the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to publish its five-year …

As we come to the end the first half of 2019 Nigeria’s monetary authorities can give themselves a pat on the back. FX reserves are high and interest rates are 300bps lower than at the end of the year. However, the entire public sector is small fry compared with the private sector. See page 2.​ FX​ The Central …

From one perspective, it could not be better. As we outline on page 2, foreign exchange reserves are high, the foreign exchange markets need no official support and the Naira has appreciated against the US dollar this year. Yet nothing stays still for long. Oil prices are weak and some investors are taking long-duration Naira fixed-income positions off the table. …